Outsmarting Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: A Guide to Planning and Forecasting—Guest Post by CEO DB Schenker, David L. Buss

Mar 10, 2023 | Logistics, Planning, Supply Chain

In today’s digital economy, businesses have come to rely heavily on their supply chain networks. While the efficiency and cost savings associated with these networks are undeniable, they also present a unique set of vulnerabilities that must be managed and monitored to remain successful.


Since the pandemic hit in 2020, supply chain risks have become even more significant. Any disruption has the potential to send a ripple effect through the entire chain. With increased demand and disruptions to global trade, companies must be prepared to take proactive steps to mitigate the potential impacts of supply chain vulnerabilities.


However, a clear and comprehensive approach to supply chain management is needed to do this, including robust planning and forecasting capabilities that can help businesses anticipate potential disruptions before they occur and take appropriate action.


Identifying Weaknesses in Today’s Supply Chain


The container shipping industry, in particular, has experienced a range of disruptions that continue to impact. From rising container costs to volatile freight rates and decreased global trade, these challenges present significant obstacles for companies reliant on international commerce.


Shippers face extended lead times and unpredictable delays due to dwindling warehouse storage capacity and limited labor pools. This makes it increasingly difficult for businesses to achieve their goals in an affordable manner, leading to higher costs and lower profits. While some companies have been able to weather the storm thus far, there’s no clear end in sight, with conditions expected to stick around for the foreseeable future.


The best way to handle supply chain weaknesses is by taking proactive steps towards adaptation and finding creative solutions.


Strategies for Mitigating Supply Chain Risk

Successful supply chain management requires long-term and short-term strategies to help businesses remain competitive in today’s market. This includes the development of comprehensive planning and forecasting processes that can help organizations anticipate potential risks before they occur.


Proactive planning and forecasting should consider a range of variables, including economic conditions, fluctuating demand levels, supplier capabilities, and inventory levels. By creating detailed plans for each area, companies can better prepare for changes in the market or disruptions within their supply chain network.


Additionally, risk assessment tools such as “what if” analysis can be utilized to identify potential problem areas before they become a reality. This allows shippers to anticipate issues and adjust accordingly, helping them minimize delays and financial losses.


How Demand Planning and Forecasting Solutions Can Help

Demand planning and forecasting solutions have become essential tools for organizations that want to maintain a successful supply chain in such turbulent times.


Demand planning allows companies to look into future demand with data-driven forecasts based on sales history and market patterns. This helps them anticipate customer needs, enabling them to adjust production levels or inventory accordingly. Forecasting solutions leverage predictive analytics and machine learning algorithms to analyze customers’ past and current behavior from different sources, providing accurate predictions about their future demands.


These two solutions can be very effective in helping disrupted supply chains by giving organizations visibility into future customer needs. This enables them to manage better inventory levels, production capacity, staffing levels, and other resources required to meet these demands. It also helps reduce costs associated with overproduction or underproduction due to inaccurate forecasts. Advanced analytics can identify when changes in demand occur quickly so that organizations can respond faster than ever.


Furthermore, integrating demand planning and forecasting solutions into existing systems enables real-time collaboration between departments within an organization – which is extremely important when dealing with disrupted supply chains. By connecting the dots between marketing, sales, operations, and finance departments, companies can take a more holistic approach to manage disruptions while maintaining high levels of customer service throughout the entire process.


Common Forecasting Mistakes Businesses Should Avoid


Many businesses rely on forecasting to make decisions and plan for the future. It is crucial for companies to forecast properly, as mistakes can be costly and significantly impact the business’s performance. To ensure accuracy in their forecasts, it is essential for companies to consider some common mistakes that could lead to costly errors in your planning process.


Accounting for Changes in Consumer Behavior


Businesses need to be prepared to identify changes in consumer behavior and adjust their forecasts accordingly. Failing to do this could lead to an inaccurate forecast that does not reflect reality. One way to do this is through customer surveys and market research. Companies should also pay attention to trends in their industry, as they could be indicative of changing consumer preferences.


Ignoring Seasonal Variations


Businesses need to factor in seasonal variations when preparing forecasts, as these can greatly impact demand. For example, certain products may experience higher demand during holidays or special occasions, whereas others may not have any significant seasonality. Failing to consider seasonal changes can lead to poor forecasting accuracy, resulting in incremental losses for the company over time.


Failure to Account for Risk Factors


Risk factors are an important part of any forecast – but businesses often overlook them. These include economic conditions, supplier reliability, political changes, and natural disasters, all of which can significantly impact demand. Failing to account for these factors could lead to an inaccurate forecast that fails to reflect reality, leading to bigger problems in the future.


Relying on Manual Calculations


Manual forecasting is often time-consuming, tedious and error-prone. This can lead to inaccurate results that don’t reflect the actual demand for a product or service. To ensure accuracy, businesses should consider using predictive analytics or forecasting software, which can quickly and accurately generate forecasts with minimal effort.


Stay Ahead of the Curve by Leveraging Forecasting and Planning


Forecasting demand is a crucial part of supply chain management. Businesses need to be prepared to account for changes in consumer behavior, seasonal variations, and risk factors and rely on predictive analytics or forecasting software to help minimize errors and ensure accuracy. By adopting these practices, companies can better manage their inventory levels and production capacity while ensuring the business can remain agile in changing industry conditions.


Author Bio:

David L. Buss

David is CEO of DB Schenker USA, a 150 year old leading global freight forwarder and 3PL provider. David Buss is responsible for all P&L aspects in the United States, which is made up of over 7,000 employees located throughout 39 forwarding locations and 55 logistics centers.



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